Original research by 10102, as of 2026-06-11 (source confidence 60%). Research notes decay: figures and reads age fast, re-verify before acting on them. Nothing here is financial advice.

TL;DR

Lighter (LIT): perp DEX as application-specific zk-rollup L2 on Ethereum; free retail trading, verifiable matching.

Structure

  • What it is: perp DEX as application-specific zk-rollup L2 on Ethereum; free retail trading, verifiable matching
  • TGE: 2025-12
  • Max supply: 1,000,000,000
  • Circulating supply (approx): 250,000,000
  • Market cap (approx): $362,000,000
  • FDV (approx): $1,450,000,000
  • Annualized revenue: $26,500,000
  • Revenue model: NOT trading fees: LLP earnings + liquidations + treasury yield (Circle deal on ~$920M USDC); rate-sensitive, lower ceiling
  • Unlocks: team (26%) + investors (24%) behind 1yr cliff opening late Dec 2026, then ~13.5M LIT/mo permanent
  • Volume trend: post-Season-2: 39B/mo (Jun 2026), -83%: volume was largely mercenary

Outlook (as of 2026-06-11)

Cheaper than Hyperliquid on multiples (roughly 14x market cap to revenue versus 19x) but with worse revenue quality: earnings come from LLP returns, liquidations and treasury yield rather than trading fees, which makes them rate-sensitive. Volume fell about 83% after Season 2 incentives ended, and the December 2026 team and investor cliff is the dominant supply event ahead. Things to watch: a Season 3 announcement and evidence of post-incentive volume stickiness.

Sources

token-research